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Current Projects

Collective Intelligence for Disease Prediction

Project years:
2017-2020

Focus area:
Emerging Infectious Diseases and Epidemics

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The Center for Health Security has developed a global disease prediction platform to leverage the “wisdom of the crowd” in order to make predictions about outbreaks and other disease-related events.  The project is intended to understand more about the validity of collective intelligence to provide public health leaders with forecasting data to help inform decisions on preparedness and response policies and interventions.

During an outbreak, real-time predictive information can help health security leaders make timely decisions about infectious disease preparedness, response policies, and potential interventions. However, disease surveillance can be slow to provide clear information. Accurate forecasts about disease outcomes, may supplement traditional surveillance and modeling efforts, increasing the capacity of public health professionals in outbreak response.

The Disease Prediction Platform uses information from current disease outbreaks to develop questions with resolutions that would be valuable for decision makers. Participant forecasters provide their predictions on the probability that a certain range of outcomes will occur. The research team then analyzes the collective forecast and develops policy implications and other conclusions.

Project team lead: Tara Kirk Sell, PhD

Co-PI: Crystal Watson, DrPH

Project team: Sanjana Ravi, MPH; Lane Warmbrod, MS; Marc Trotochaud, MPH; Elena Martin, MPH; Sarah Attreed

Project supported by: Open Philanthropy Project

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Our Mission

To protect people’s health from epidemics and disasters and ensure that communities are resilient to major challenges.