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Our publications keep professionals working across the public, private, and academic sectors informed on the most important developments and issues in health security and biosecurity.

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Characteristics of Microbes Most Likely to Cause Pandemics and Global Catastrophes

Amesh A. Adalja; Matthew Watson; Eric S. Toner; Anita Cicero; Thomas V. Inglesby
Date posted:
August 30, 2019
Publication type:
Book chapter

Global Catastrophic Biological Risks

Springer, Cham
PDF available on publisher’s site
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Predicting which pathogen will confer the highest global catastrophic biological risk (GCBR) of a pandemic is a difficult task. Many approaches are retrospective and premised on prior pandemics; however, such an approach may fail to appreciate novel threats that do not have exact historical precedent. In this paper, based on a study and project we undertook, a new paradigm for pandemic preparedness is presented. This paradigm seeks to root pandemic risk in actual attributes possessed by specific classes of microbial organisms and leads to specific recommendations to augment preparedness activities.



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