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Title:

Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19

Authors:
Biggerstaff M, Cowling BJ, Cucunubá ZM, Dinh L, Ferguson NM, Gao H, Warmbrod. L, et al.
Date posted:
September 15, 2020
Publication type:
Article
Publication:
Emerg Infect Dis. 2020;26(11)
DOI:
10.3201/eid2611.201074
See also:
Introduction:
We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8–6.9 days, serial interval 4.0–7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3–7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.

 

 

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