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Title:

Public Health Measures and the Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2

Authors:

Thomas V. Inglesby, MD

Date posted:

May 01, 2020

Publication type:

Article

Publication:

JAMA

DOI:

10.1001/jama.2020.7878

See also:

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Introduction:

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory infectious disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), first detected in early December 2019 in Wuhan, China. It has since spread throughout the world.

One measure of viral spread is the R₀, the expected number of secondary infectious cases produced by a primary infectious case. This calculation is used to determine the potential for epidemic spread in a susceptible population. The effective reproduction number, R_t, determines the potential for epidemic spread at a specific time t under the control measures in place (Figure 1). To evaluate the effectiveness of public health interventions, the R_t should be quantified in different settings, ideally at regular and frequent intervals (eg, weekly).