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Using a Prediction Market to Forecast Dengue Fever Activity

Sell TK, Franco C, Ho ATY, Polgreen PM
Date posted:
June 01, 2011
Publication type:

Emerging Health Threats Journal. 2011

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Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease, and there is considerable evidence that case numbers are rising and geographical distribution of the disease is widening within the United States, and around the world. The accuracy and reporting frequency of dengue morbidity and mortality information varies geographically, and often is an underestimation of the actual number of dengue infections. As traditional methods of disease surveillance may not accurately capture the true impact of this disease, it is important to gather professional observations and opinions from individuals in the public health, medical, and vector control fields of practice. Prediction markets are one way of supplementing traditional surveillance and quantifying the observations and predictions of professionals in the field.



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